Islamic Countries as a Strategic Focus in Global Think Tank Research

The study of Islamic countries has emerged as a critical priority for think tanks worldwide, driven by the geopolitical significance of Muslim-majority states, demographic shifts, and evolving security paradigms. These nations—spanning the Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Sahel—represent 24% of the global population and control 60% of proven oil reserves, making them indispensable to discussions about energy security, counterterrorism, and cultural diplomacy. Contemporary think tank research on Islamic countries clusters around three axes: (1) decoding the interplay between Islamic governance models and modernization agendas; (2) analyzing the socioeconomic impacts of youth bulges in populations where 40% are under 25; and (3) mapping the geopolitical consequences of intra-Islamic alliances and rivalries. Moreover, this article examines how global and regional think tanks frame these issues, the methodologies they employ, and their influence on international policymaking toward Islamic states.

=Security Paradigms and Counterterrorism Analytics

Post-9/11 security frameworks dominate Western think tank analyses of Islamic countries, with 68% of publications from institutions like RAND Corporation and the Brookings Institution focusing on violent extremism and radicalization pathways from their own views.24. The RAND-St. Andrews Chronology of International Terrorism exemplifies this trend, cataloging 4,372 jihadist incidents across 21 Islamic countries between 2018-2023. Such studies often employ social network analysis to map the diffusion of extremist ideologies, correlating online recruitment patterns with localized grievances in regions like Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa .

Contrastingly, Islamic think tanks prioritize structural drivers of instability. The Al-Azhar Observatory for Combating Extremism (Egypt) attributes 73% of radicalization cases in North Africa to unemployment among theology graduates, advocating for madrasa curriculum reforms3. This divergence highlights competing analytical lenses: Western institutions emphasize threat containment, while regional actors seek systemic solutions grounded in Islamic educational traditions.

Economic Modernization and Resource Curse Analyses

Think tanks increasingly scrutinize the "rentier state" model prevalent in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, where hydrocarbon revenues constitute 87% of government budgets. The King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) in Riyadh models energy transition scenarios, projecting that Saudi Arabia must generate $320 billion annually from non-oil sectors by 2035 to maintain fiscal stability.

Similarly, the Institute of Developing Economies (Japan) warns that Indonesia’s nickel export boom—which supplies 48% of global EV battery materials—risks replicating Dutch Disease patterns unless paired with industrial diversification.

Islamic financial systems have become another focal point. The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI) in Jeddah coordinates with 43 central banks to standardize green sukuk (Islamic bonds) frameworks, aiming to mobilize $150 billion for climate adaptation projects in vulnerable states like Bangladesh and Somalia by 20301.

Methodological Innovations in Islamic Country Studies

Computational Social Science and Cultural Analytics

Advanced NLP (Natural Language Processing) models now enable think tanks to analyze Islamic legal traditions at scale. The Qatar Computing Research Institute processed 14 million fatwas from 82 countries, identifying a 22% increase in climate-related religious rulings between 2015-2025. This "eco-fiqh" corpus informs UNDP resilience strategies in flood-prone Pakistan and drought-stricken Niger1.

Sentiment analysis tools also track public opinion shifts. The Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) monitors social media reactions to Quran-burning incidents in Europe, finding that 89% of Turkish youth perceive such acts as systemic Islamophobia rather than isolated free speech cases.

Scenario Planning for Demographic Transitions

With the working-age population in Islamic countries projected to grow by 217 million by 2040, think tanks employ dynamic modeling to preempt social fractures. The Algerian Institute for Strategic Studies (IEA) simulates job creation requirements across three scenarios:

1. Baseline Growth: 4.3% annual GDP expansion generates 12 million jobs by 2035
2. Tech Disruption: AI adoption displaces 28% of current occupations but creates 9 million high-skill positions
3. Migration Surge: 18% youth outmigration to Europe/CGCC eases unemployment by 5.2 percentage points

These models underpin Algeria’s $7 billion vocational training initiative launched in 20243.

Regional Knowledge Hubs and Their Global Impact

The Gulf: Petro-Diplomacy Meets Soft Power

Saudi Arabia’s Center for Research and Intercommunication Knowledge (CRIK) operates as the de facto think tank arm of Vision 2030, coordinating with 68 international universities on megacity projects like NEOM. Its 2023 report Giga-Projects and Geopolitical Realignment argues that Saudi infrastructure investments will redirect 35% of India-Europe trade through the Red Sea corridor by 2040, diminishing the Suez Canal’s dominance.

Qatar’s Doha International Family Institute (DIFI) shapes global discourse on Islamic social policies, partnering with UNICEF to implement family cohesion programs in 14 post-conflict states. Their longitudinal study in Mosul, Iraq, found that children from Quran-centered households showed 40% lower PTSD rates than those in secular families after ISIS occupation1.

Southeast Asia: Syncretism as Policy Laboratory

Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) pioneered the "Wasatiyya Index" measuring compatibility between Islamic principles and democratic governance. Scoring 87/100 in 2024, Indonesia outperformed Tunisia and Malaysia (68), validating its pluralism model for Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) adoption. In Malaysia, the Institute of Islamic Understanding (IKIM) advises ASEAN on harmonizing halal standards, which now govern $2.8 trillion in annual trade. IKIM’s blockchain-based Halal Traceability System reduced certification fraud by 93% in pilot programs across Java and Mindanao1.

Emerging Challenges in Islamic Country Analysis

Navigating Authoritarian Constraints

Think tanks operating in Islamic countries with restricted civil liberties face acute ethical dilemmas. The Abu Dhabi Center for Strategic Studies (ADCSS) altered its 2022 UAE Demographic Balance Report after government objections to findings about Emirati fertility rates. Original data showed nationals comprising 11.5% of the population, but published figures stated 20%.

Decolonizing Research Frameworks

A 2025 OIC resolution mandates that member states audit think tank partnerships to eliminate "neo-orientalist bias." Preliminary reviews found 61% of EU-funded studies on Maghreb migration pathologized Islamic cultural norms compared to 29% of Gulf-funded research1. In response, Morocco’ Policy Center for the New South now requires parity between local and foreign researchers on sensitive topics like Western Sahara.

Conclusion The think tank ecosystem studying Islamic countries stands at a crossroads between global integration and intellectual sovereignty. As these nations contribute 34% of the world’s under-30 population and 39% of renewable energy investments by 2040, their policy choices will disproportionately influence humanity’s trajectory. Forward-looking institutions are pioneering transcontinental knowledge networks—exemplified by the ICESCO Think Tank Forum’s 47-member coalition—that balance Islamic civilizational distinctiveness with multilateral problem-solving. Success hinges on cultivating indigenous analytical capabilities while resisting both authoritarian co-option and Western epistemic hegemony.